KROTKA HISTORIA CZASU EBOOK
Title, Krótka historia czasu: od wielkiego wybuchu do czarnych dziur. Author, Stephen William Hawking. Translated by, Piotr Amsterdamski. Publisher, Zysk i. Ilustrowana krótka historia czasu by S W Hawking. Ilustrowana krótka historia czasu. by S W Hawking; Piotr Amsterdamski; Zysk i S-ka Wydawnictwo. Print book. Stephen W Hawking Leonard Mlodinow Jeszcze krótsza historia czasu [djvu] [pl], 0 Collapse by Richard Stephenson (New America Book 01) [ePUB/Mobi], 0.
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Yet across the gulf of space, minds that are to our minds as ours are to those of the beasts that perish, intellects vast and cool and unsympathetic, regarded this earth with envious eyes, and slowly and surely drew their plans against us. And early in the twentieth century came the great disillusionment.
The planet Mars, I scarcely need remind the reader, revolves about the sun at a mean distance of ,, miles, and the light and heat it receives from the sun is barely half of that received by this world. It must be, if the nebular hypothesis has any truth, older than our world; and long before this earth ceased to be molten, life upon its surface must have begun its course. The fact that it is scarcely one seventh of the volume of the earth must have accelerated its cooling to the temperature at which life could begin.
It has air and water and all that is necessary for the support of animated existence. Yet so vain is man, and so blinded by his vanity, that no writer, up to the very end of the nineteenth century, expressed any idea that intelligent life might have developed there far, or indeed at all, beyond its earthly level.
The secular cooling that must someday overtake our planet has already gone far indeed with our neighbour. Its physical condition is still largely a mystery, but we know now that even in its equatorial region the midday temperature barely approaches that of our coldest winter.
Its air is much more attenuated than ours, its oceans have shrunk until they cover but a third of its surface, and as its slow seasons change huge snowcaps gather and melt about either pole and periodically inundate its temperate zones. That last stage of exhaustion, which to us is still incredibly remote, has become a present-day problem for the inhabitants of Mars.
The immediate pressure of necessity has brightened their intellects, enlarged their powers, and hardened their hearts. And looking across space with instruments, and intelligences such as we have scarcely dreamed of, they see, at its nearest distance only 35,, of miles sunward of them, a morning star of hope, our own warmer planet, green with vegetation and grey with water, with a cloudy atmosphere eloquent of fertility, with glimpses through its drifting cloud wisps of broad stretches of populous country and narrow, navy-crowded seas.
And we men, the creatures who inhabit this earth, must be to them at least as alien and lowly as are the monkeys and lemurs to us. The intellectual side of man already admits that life is an incessant struggle for existence, and it would seem that this too is the belief of the minds upon Mars. Their world is far gone in its cooling and this world is still crowded with life, but crowded only with what they regard as inferior animals. To carry warfare sunward is, indeed, their only escape from the destruction that, generation after generation, creeps upon them.
And before we judge of them too harshly we must remember what ruthless and utter destruction our own species has wrought, not only upon animals, such as the vanished bison and the dodo, but upon its inferior races.
The Tasmanians, in spite of their human likeness, were entirely swept out of existence in a war of extermination waged by European immigrants, in the space of fifty years.
Are we such apostles of mercy as to complain if the Martians warred in the same spirit? The Martians seem to have calculated their descent with amazing subtlety—their mathematical learning is evidently far in excess of ours—and to have carried out their preparations with a well-nigh perfect unanimity.
Had our instruments permitted it, we might have seen the gathering trouble far back in the nineteenth century. Men like Schiaparelli watched the red planet—it is odd, by-the-bye, that for countless centuries Mars has been the star of war—but failed to interpret the fluctuating appearances of the markings they mapped so well.
All that time the Martians must have been getting ready. During the opposition of a great light was seen on the illuminated part of the disk, first at the Lick Observatory, then by Perrotin of Nice, and then by other observers.
English readers heard of it first in the issue of Nature dated August 2. I am inclined to think that this blaze may have been the casting of the huge gun, in the vast pit sunk into their planet, from which their shots were fired at us. Peculiar markings, as yet unexplained, were seen near the site of that outbreak during the next two oppositions. The storm burst upon us six years ago now.
As Mars approached opposition, Lavelle of Java set the wires of the astronomical exchange palpitating with the amazing intelligence of a huge outbreak of incandescent gas upon the planet. It had occurred towards midnight of the twelfth; and the spectroscope, to which he had at once resorted, indicated a mass of flaming gas, chiefly hydrogen, moving with an enormous velocity towards this earth.
This jet of fire had become invisible about a quarter past twelve. A singularly appropriate phrase it proved. Yet the next day there was nothing of this in the papers except a little note in the Daily Telegraph, and the world went in ignorance of one of the gravest dangers that ever threatened the human race.
I might not have heard of the eruption at all had I not met Ogilvy, the well-known astronomer, at Ottershaw. He was immensely excited at the news, and in the excess of his feelings invited me up to take a turn with him that night in a scrutiny of the red planet.
In spite of all that has happened since, I still remember that vigil very distinctly: Ogilvy moved about, invisible but audible. Looking through the telescope, one saw a circle of deep blue and the little round planet swimming in the field. It seemed such a little thing, so bright and small and still, faintly marked with transverse stripes, and slightly flattened from the perfect round. It was as if it quivered, but really this was the telescope vibrating with the activity of the clockwork that kept the planet in view.
As I watched, the planet seemed to grow larger and smaller and to advance and recede, but that was simply that my eye was tired. Forty millions of miles it was from us—more than forty millions of miles of void.
Few people realise the immensity of vacancy in which the dust of the material universe swims. Near it in the field, I remember, were three faint points of light, three telescopic stars infinitely remote, and all around it was the unfathomable darkness of empty space. You know how that blackness looks on a frosty starlight night. In a telescope it seems far profounder. And invisible to me because it was so remote and small, flying swiftly and steadily towards me across that incredible distance, drawing nearer every minute by so many thousands of miles, came the Thing they were sending us, the Thing that was to bring so much struggle and calamity and death to the earth.
I never dreamed of it then as I watched; no one on earth dreamed of that unerring missile. They need to be prepared for change and quickly adapt to changes in their environment. This means they cannot rely on the autopilot for collaboration any more. They need the spontaneity, flexibility and creativity that often characterizes collaboration in a small company or startup, but it must happen at a much greater scale and across geographical and organizational barriers. To me, only one word is needed to describe this ability: collaboration.
A lot of organizations strive to become more agile and innovative. Doing so, they often rely on the same assumptions, thinking and methods that formed the basis of the traditional industrial corporation, and which worked against innovation and agility.
They are also quick to jump to solutions without understanding the true nature of the problems they are trying to fix. They deploy new tools hoping these will 'automagically' fix problems without considering human behavior or culture. The ambition of this book is to help you and your organization avoid these pitfalls.
To do so, it questions existing assumptions, thinking and methods, and introduces new ones. It describes how digital tools can leverage wanted human behaviors and speed up a culture change, if these are designed with the people and the culture as the starting point.
Along the way, you will learn why information is like water, why the hierarchical organization has passed its due date, and why you can find the clues for a solution to information overload in the ancient and long since destroyed Library of Alexandria. They could, with fairly good accuracy, predict the demand for their products or services over years, and match supply accordingly.
Consumers remained fairly stable in their attitudes and behaviors towards products and services. Some new features and an updated design were all that was required.
A hierarchy of managers made sure that plans were followed and executed. The role of management was to execute the business model as efficiently as possible, focusing on cutting cost so they could increase their market share through competitive pricing, and increase profits and returns to shareholders. Management created and refined policies and procedures to make sure that operations ran like a well-oiled machine, and all measures of success and incentive systems were geared towards efficient execution.
Today, the business environment is different due to global competition and rapidly changing attitudes and behaviors among consumers towards products and services. Organizations operate in an increasingly complex, unpredictable, and rapidly changing environment. Many of the challenges they have to deal with require the participation of lots of people, with different professions and skill sets, coming from different geographies, organizations and backgrounds.
Whether the goal is to serve a customer, solve a problem, or develop a new product, the organization relies heavily on its ability to quickly mobilize and coordinate the right people, and to get the best and most out of the people it has available.
A lot of organizations perform poorly in these respects, especially those that are large or growing rapidly and have a physically dispersed workforce. They need to respond and adapt rapidly to changes in the business environment while remaining productive and efficient.
Most of the organizations that were successful during the 20th century were built like supertankers, and many of them still are. They have been used to enter new markets and crush their competitors by their sheer size, slowly moving forward following a course that the top management team set out long before the ship left harbor.
Hubris usually follows with size and makes them blind and unable to adapt to their environment. Recent examples that had to do this, and failed, are Nokia and Kodak. Eighty-seven percent of the Fortune firms in were gone in , and life expectancy of a Fortune company has decreased from 75 years, half a decade ago, to only 15 years; and is expected to decrease even more in the years ahead Chew, This development is illustrated in figure 1.
The work we do as individuals is directly or indirectly interdependent with the work other people do. To achieve our shared goals as an organization, each one of us needs to do the right things in the right way, and we must also coordinate our work efficiently and effectively.
To make this coordination easier, organizations establish and maintain various structures such as the hierarchical organization, processes, and projects.
During the 20th century, the hierarchical organization solved the coordination challenges that organizations faced. Figure 2: The hierarchical organization is a hub-and-spoke network So how does this solution work?
Technically, a hierarchical organization is a network, as illustrated in figure 2. The hierarchical organization was originally designed as a command hierarchy where people carry out orders given from the top of the hierarchy. Commands, tasks, and goals flow downwards in the hierarchy, from superiors to their subordinates.
In a traditional hierarchical organization, most of the guidance and processes about the management and operation of the enterprise is typically produced and aggregated at the top. It is then cascaded down the hierarchy. The information must often pass each level of management on its way down until it reaches the intended receivers. In doing so, they can often select which people they think should receive the information, how they should receive it, when they should receive it, and exactly what they should receive.
Since the overall structure is centrally created and managed in a hierarchical organization, the structure becomes rigid and cannot be easily or rapidly changed to adapt to new conditions. Changes in the structure of a hierarchical organization are typically implemented in re-organization projects.
These not only consume a lot of time and resources from management, but they often also paralyze the workforce.
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The re-organization projects introduce a great amount of uncertainty. People cannot control or influence the situation. Another major weakness of the hierarchical organization is related to how information may flow within the hierarchy, affecting the ability to provide people with the right information in the right time.
In theory, a hub and spoke network allows information to cascade across the network, from the central hub and outwards along the spokes. In practice, it rarely works like the theory. Figure 3: The fallacy of the hierarcical organization To start with, it is hard for a manager to know exactly what information each individual subordinate needs, and thus potentially relevant information might be accidentally filtered out.
Information might also be corrupted, censored, manipulated, delayed, or blocked as it is cascaded down the hierarchy. Moreover, the flow of information is primarily one-directional. Formal rules, as expressed in policies, processes, and procedures steer how the information is intended or allowed to flow across the network. The flow is also determined by the behavior of the actors in the network who might — intentionally or unintentionally — filter, delay, manipulate, censor or even block the information from reaching the intended receivers.
There are no formal links that connect people in different branches of the hierarchy directly to each other. If a person wants to exchange information with a person in another branch of the hierarchy, it might have to go all the way up in the hierarchy to where the two branches meet. This introduces transaction costs that limit the amount and frequency of communication between different parts of the organization. An informal network is a social network, a set of social ties between people, which exists within an organization, see figure 4.
Figure 4: Informal networks within an organization Informal networks within organisations are different to the formal structures that perform these functions as they lack structure and arise spontaneously.
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They develop and change organically as people interact with new people and build bonds of trust between each other. Informal networks are often seen as problematic as they bypass the formal structures for communication and decision-making, in a hidden way that cannot be controlled by management.
Yet, most organizations would not function without them. The informal networks have compensated for the lack of bandwidth, lateral connectivity, and inertia of the formal information flows that follow the hierarchical organization structure, by rapidly bringing new information to the awareness of both formal and informal decision-makers.
Figure 5: Personal social networks stretch beyond organizational borders When we talk about social networks today, we typically refer to the social networks we have as individuals, with ourselves as the central hub. In contrast to informal networks, our personal social networks are not limited to the organization we work for.
As illustrated in figure 5, they stretch far beyond the borders of an organization and include family, friends, ex-colleagues, online acquaintances, and other people we have some kind of relationship to.
Yet our personal social networks are becoming more and more important for getting work done. As knowledge workers, we use our personal social networks every day.
We use them to find and get access to expertise and information, to discover and take action on opportunities, to solve problems, to get buy-in for decisions, and so on.
They are especially important when we find ourselves in situations where we lack complete or accurate information to make decisions, or when faced with exceptions and problems we cannot handle on our own.
If people are separated from each other by geography and organization, and are relatively unconnected such as is often the case in a large organization , more structural holes will emerge.
Although the members of a group have strong ties to each other and exchange information with high velocity, much of the information exchanged within a group is redundant. New information and ideas must, by necessity, come from outside the group. The problem is that when the group members focus on their own goals and activities they communicate less with the world outside. They exchange less information with other groups. This phenomena is often called groupthink.
Figure 6: Social networks that stretch across groups help bridge structural holes Depending on the size and structure of the social network it is more or less effective. When a social network becomes too dense and homogenous, it limits access to new information that represents other ideas, beliefs, and perspectives see figure 7. The social network can easily turn into an echo chamber where the same information is shared and ideas are repeated over and over again, much like in a group that develops groupthink.
Figure 7: Different structure of social networks Social networks often become dense and homogenous since people tend to develop relationships with people like themselves. If people are socially similar, they are also likely to have more shared interests. When people pursue their interests, they spend time at the same places as other people who share the same interests. When they meet, they communicate and develop relationships.
If people are curious and open to new ideas and perspectives, it will likely benefit both themselves and the organizations they work for.
To begin with, the structure of a social network is flat. Its structure made up of a set of actors with interpersonal ties.
The network grows and changes organically, taking any possible shape without being restricted by any formal rules, and with no central planning.
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New ties can be established as needed, without having to change the overall structure of the network. In a social network, information can flow freely via the actors in the network, in any direction, across the interpersonal ties between the individuals in the network. These ties can be strong, weak, or absent. While the velocity of the information exchange is greater where there are strong ties, more novel information is exchanged via the weak ties.
It is the behavior of the actors in the network that entirely steers what information is exchanged as there are no formal rules for how the information may flow. The majority of the less successful change initiatives were led by people described as having moderate or weak personal social networks.
Another study managed to infer the social networks of , employees within a large organization in the consulting industry by analyzing their email communication.Toothless Kinch and I, the supermen.
The man that was drowned. Managers need to understand that we are on the verge of a new economic era. Later - Basic version. This book highlights these concepts, provides examples of the new approaches, and supports each of us to put them into practical use.